Tour de France 2026 Betting Picks & Predictions
Tour de France 2026 predictions - our yellow jersey pick, dark horses and best bets
The Tour de France is the ultimate road cycling race and a true test of endurance. Legends like Greg LeMond, Chris Froome, and Eddy Merckx have made their names as yellow jersey holders in the past. But who will emerge victorious in 2026?
Join us at Stake Sportsbook as we'll keep you updated with the latest cycling betting odds. Plus, we'll introduce some of the most likely yellow jersey winners to help you form your Tour de France betting slip as you bet at Stake.
Our 2026 Tour de France yellow jersey prediction
We’re predicting Tadej Pogačar to win the 2026 Tour de France. The Slovenian has won 4 Tours de France, including in 2024 and 2025, and is a heavy betting favourite to win his 3rd-consecutive race.
In 2024, Pogačar also became only the 3rd male cyclist to achieve the Triple Crown of Cycling, winning the Giro, the Tour and the World Championships in the same year. In 2025, he became the first male cyclist to win both the Tour de France and the UCI Road World Championship road Race in 2 successive years. He’ll be looking to break more records by winning the 2026 Tour de France.
Find out more about outright betting odds and how to place them in our outright betting guide.
Pogačar vs Vingegaard - the rivalry that decides the 2026 Tour
Tadej Pogačar may be the heavy favourite to win the 2026 Tour, but he’ll have to hold off the challenge from his rival, Jonas Vingegaard. The 2 cyclists are at the top of their game, both dominating world cycling and pushing each other to be better.
While Pogacar has won the 2 most recent Tours, Vingegaard took the yellow jersey in 2022 and 2023. The Danish cyclist also won the 2025 Vuelta a España and, most recently, was crowned champion at the 2026 Giro d’Italia.
Both riders are elite and have the potential to win the Tour de France, but they each have their own style. Pogačar is an explosive rider who relies on sudden acceleration to gap his opponent, while Vingegaard prefers to keep a steady, relentless pace to beat his rivals.
Dark horses and outright value picks for 2026
Based on the current betting odds, Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard are way out in front as possible winners of the 2026 Tour. However, there are lots of other cyclists who are likely competing for third place or may even challenge as dark horses. These include:
Paul Seixas
Paul Seixas is just 19 years old and will be making his debut at the 2026 Tour de France. Despite that, the teenage cyclist is the 3rd favourite to win. Hailed as a future star of world cycling, Seixas will be looking to break the monopoly of the top 2 and has a great chance to finish on the podium.
Isaac del Toro Romero
As Pogačar’s teammate, del Toro is unlikely to win the 2026 Tour de France unless Pogačar suffers some kind of injury or illness. However, the explosive climber has a great chance to take a podium position in the race. Like Seixas, this will be his debut at the Tour de France, but he won the UAE Tour earlier this year.
Remco Evenepoel
Belgian cyclist Evenepoel took the decision not to compete in this year’s Tour de Flanders or Giro d’Italia, instead focusing all his efforts on the 2026 Tour de France. In his debut race in 2024, he achieved a podium finish and won the Young Rider classification. However, he was forced to abandon the race in 2025. If he can avoid bad luck, he has a great chance of securing a podium finish, and some feel he could challenge in the GC.
Florian Lipowitz
Lipowitz is another top contender at this year’s Tour, but one with proven ability. He’s previously finished on a Grand Tour podium, achieving 3rd place at the 2025 Tour de France and securing the White Jersey as the best young rider. He’ll be looking to make the podium once more, and has recently won the 2026 Tour of Slovenia.
Key mountain stages that will decide the general classification
The mountain stages of the Tour de France are often the decider in the general classification race, with large time gaps opening up compared to the time differences on flat sprint stages. The Tour is known for its brutal mountain climbs, and the 2026 route has some very challenging stages such as:
The opening Pyrenees week
The 2026 Tour de France gets underway in the city of Barcelona, with the Grand Depart seeing riders racing against the clock in a team trial. Although this is mostly flat ground, it finishes with a tough, 800m uphill climb.
For Stage 2, teams start in Tarragona, down the coast from Barcelona, before working their way back to the Catalan capital with a hill street circuit race.
Stage 3 is the first mountain stage of the 2026 tour as teams cross the Pyrenees into France travelling from Granollers to Les Angles over 195 km. This stage also features a Cat 1 Col de Toses climb.
However, Stage 6 is the centrepiece of the 2026 Tour de France Pyrenees. The 186 km route includes the first major summit finish of the race, with 4,100m of climbing. The general classification should start to take shape following this stage.
Plateau de Solaison summit finish
Past the midway point of the race, riders will tackle a 3,800 elevation climb over 155 km while racing through Stage 14. This stage features 4 Cat 1 climbs, including a very challenging 11.2 km at 7.3 per cent.
Stage 15 of the 2026 Tour will feature a 183 km race from Champagnole to Plateau de Solaison through the mountains. The Plateau de Solaison is beyond classification, forcing riders to climb 11.3 km at 9 percent. The second rest day of the Tour follows, so expect riders to be giving it their all if the general classification battle is tight.
Back-to-back Alpe d'Huez
The 3rd week of the Tour features a brutal back-to-back summit of the Alpe d’Huez. Stage 19 will see riders ascend 13.8 km at 8.1 percent, battling through the maint’s gruelling 21 switchbacks. It’s the first time the climb has been included in the Tour since 2022, but teams will first have to make their way through 3 categorised climbs.
The penultimate stage, also known as the Queen stage, will conclude the general classification battle and has been labelled as one of the hardest days racing in recent history. Cyclists will have to tackle Col de la Croix de Fer followed by Col du Telegraphe and Col de Sarenne. The day finishes with a second summit of Alpe d’Huez. Only this time, riders will only need to power through 5 switchbacks.
Green jersey prediction: who wins the 2026 points classification
Jasper Philipsen is one of the favourites to win the 2026 points classification and obtain the green jersey. He won the 2023 green jersey but unfortunately crashed out of the 2025 Tour in stage 3. So far in 2026, Philipsen has won 2 races, but has shown great sprinting performances.
While we’re predicting Philipsen to win the points classification in 2026, other contenders include Jonathan Milan, Olav Kooij, Mads Pedersen, Tim Merlier and Biniam Girmay.
Polka dot jersey prediction: our king of the mountains pick
Tadej Pogačar won the polka-dot jersey in 2025 and we’re backing him to be crowned King of the Mountains once more in 2026. He’s the clear favourite at Stake, having already won the mountains classification 3 times. It will depend on how Pogačar’s battle with Vingegaard develops, as their contest will likely be decided in the main stages.
Aside from Vingegaard, Pogačar will have to watch out for competition from Valentin Paret-Peintre, Lenny Martinez and Richard Carapaz in the KOM.
White jersey and most combative predictions
Best young rider (white jersey) pick
Paul Seixas is the obvious pick for the best young rider at the 2026 Tour de France. The French prodigy is touted as a potential GC contender, and if he’s able to compete with Pogačar and Vingegaard, he’ll almost certainly win the white jersey.
Also watch out for Isaac del Toro, Florian Lipowitz and Juan Ayuso in the young rider classification markets.
Most combative rider pick
Bean Healy won the most combative rider at the 2025 Tour after putting in some excellent displays of aggression throughout the race. He’s a great pick to win this award again in 2026, but we also expect Mathieu van Poel and Richard Carapaz to compete.
Our predicted final podium in Paris
Our predicted final podium in Paris is:
Tadej Pogačar
Jonas Vongegaard
Remco Evenepoel
Where to bet on the Tour de France 2026 at Stake
You can find the latest betting odds for the 2026 Tour de France right now. Get the most competitive outright odds and make the most of shifting odds during the race. There are lots of betting options to choose from, and you’ll also be able to enjoy our sports promotions. Make sure you follow the responsible betting guidelines to stay Stake Smart.
